27 July 2008

The problem with the Singapore Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) is that they rely too heavily on figures from EIA, CERA and BP without questioning their accuracy. All these sources have proven to be overly optimistic in their oil demand and supply projections and they cite grossly exaggerated oil reserve numbers from OPEC. These dubious sources have been consistently wrong on so many occasions it is surprising they are still quoted on major news networks and regarded as authoritative by government bodies. MTI should be consulting the works and publications of ASPO and TheOilDrum.

CERA's Peak Oil Score Card

Related Link: Energy for [Unsustainable] Growth

Speech by Mr S Iswaran

October 18, 2006

What will the global energy landscape look like in the long term? For one, fossil fuels, such as oil, natural gas and coal will remain the world’s main energy source for the foreseeable future. The US Energy Information Administration, or EIA, estimated that in 2003, 87% of world energy consumption came from oil, natural gas and coal. The EIA projects that in 2030, these three fuels will retain a prominent 86% share of global energy supply. Estimated reserves of fossil fuels are expected to be adequate well beyond 2030. The EIA estimates that oil production will not peak before 2030. World reserves-to-production ratio for natural gas is 67 years, and 180 years for coal. Rising energy prices will also spur more oil and gas exploration and increasingly render unconventional oil, such as tar sands, economically viable. In essence, actual physical reserves of fossil fuels do not appear to be the limiting factor in meeting increasing energy demand in the next few decades. FULL SPEECH