Singapore Peak Oil

Singapore's Inter-Ministerial Committee on Sustainable Development (IMCSD) has unveiled its blueprint for sustainable development. You can download it at: http://app.mewr.gov.sg/data/ImgCont/1292/sustainbleblueprint_forweb.pdf

My impressions? In short, it is inadequate and myopic. It is another step on the road to diminishing returns on investments in social complexity. (See also: New Scientist article)

In spite of the blueprint's laudable efforts and lofty goals to maintain sustainable growth (an oxymoron really) and to promote green living standards, one topic that is sorely missing is any discussion at all about the future availability of dense energy sources, namely fossil fuels, to implement the "four-pronged strategy".

Energy is required for water recycling, purification and desalination, for waste management and recycling, for public transportation, for the construction of green buildings, etc. The big question which is not answered in the blueprint: where will we get the energy to carry out these activities in the next 20 years?

Sure the blueprint talks alot about energy efficiency and technologies, but they should focus on total overall consumption instead. If total overall consumption keeps growing, a finite resource like oil or natural gas will eventually be depleted regardless of how efficiently it is consumed per capita. See charts below.

Sources: EMA, Singstat and E2Singapore

The blueprint states:

In the past 10 years, households in Singapore consumed 64% more electricity, 21% more water, and generated 21% more solid waste. (p.40)

Will technology save us? No, because firstly it will likely result in greater consumption of energy and resources according to "Jevons Paradox," named after the 19th century English economist who observed that the increased efficiency in consumption of a resource tends to increase overall consumption and demand. Secondly, technology runs on energy. All forms of alternative energy depend on energy inputs from shrinking reserves of fossil fuels during the manufacturing process, and due to reasons of complexities of scale, diminishing energy returns, low energy qualities and energy interchangeability challenges, alternative energy supplies can never fully replace fossil fuels. Minister Yaacob Ibrahim, co-chairman of the IMCSD, has acknowledged this fact in the Business Times (28 April 2009, p.32):

"If you ask us whether we can really change our economic structure and replace all the fossil fuels that we import with alternative energy - not possible."

Considering that surplus energy is required for growth and complex societies like ours to function smoothly, how shall we live after peak oil if alternative energies are not viable substitutes?

The Export Land Model developed by geologist Jeffrey Brown and others forecasts that the top five net oil exporting countries of the world (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran and the UAE), who presently account for half of the world's net oil exports, will cease to export any oil by 2030 because of rising domestic consumption in their own countries and declining field production. In other words, they will have ZERO oil surpluses for export by 2030; they keep whatever they have for themselves and the rest of the world gets nothing. Actually, we don't even have to wait till 2030 to experience the painful effects because the model projects that their oil exports will be halved by 2015. If you think about that for a minute, the implications are profound and far-reaching; we're talking about distressing adjustments to the way we live, eat, work and play for the next 10-20 years.

Derrick Jensen, author of Endgame, defines a city as "people living more or less permanently in one place in densities high enough to require the routine importation of food and other necessities of life." Singapore certainly fits that description. Because of our excessive reliance on transient supplies of fossil fuels for food and electricity, densely populated cities like Singapore are by nature unsustainable and abnormal in the history of civilisation. William Catton, author of Overshoot, characterises this aberration as a "phantom carrying capacity" - that portion of a population that cannot be permanently supported when temporarily available resources [fossil fuels] become unavailable.

I am a little amazed that our sustainability blueprint for the next 20 years would exclude any major discussions of future energy sources. Just like the Ministry of Trade and Industry's "Energy for Growth - National Energy Policy" report, the sustainable blueprint has been disappointing. IMCSD has failed to connect the dots between the economy and the ecosystem by erroneously believing "that growth and environmental sustainability are compatible and mutually reinforcing (p.78)" and by neglecting any studies on future energy availability.

Fellow Singaporeans, brace yourself for a tumultuous future.

The only viable long term solution? Stop growing. Relocalize and embrace a steady state economy.

An email that I sent recently....

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Dear MND and MEWR,

As a concerned Singaporean, I am alarmed to read the following in a speech by Minister Mah Bow Tan:

Cities have to ensure that economic growth is not stunted by infrastructure bottlenecks and that growth does not come at the expense of clean air, clean water and a liveable environment. http://www.mnd.gov.sg/newsroom/Speeches/speeches_2009_M_24042009.htm

I urge the Minister to reconsider that statement because research done by the authors of the "Limits to Growth", ecological economists and scientists have proven that "there is a fundamental conflict between economic growth and environmental protection, including conservation of biodiversity, clean air and water, and atmospheric stability. This conflict is due to natural laws (thermodynamics and ecological structures) - it is simply a result of the way the world works. Mounting evidence of this conflict demonstrates the limits to growth."

A cursory reading of the daily news reports will tell us that we are loosing biodiversity, fresh water, top soil, and clean air at an unprecedented rate and all of this is due to human economic expansion.

I plead with you to read the following articles and re-examine the growth paradigm which has guided us for at least the last 50 years and come to an understanding that this cannot go on forever. At some point, probably now, we will clash with the earth's ecological limits to sustain itself and Nature always wins. This means that societal collapse and die-offs are inevitable unless we take steps now to descend the growth ladder in a controlled manner, or else massive social dislocation is likely to ensue in the years ahead.

A sustainable Singapore requires a new non-growth paradigm to guide us, not the current one that has left the earth devastated and poorer for future generations.

Revisiting the Limits to Growth After Peak Oil
http://www.esf.edu/efb/hall/2009-05Hall0327.pdf

Economics in a Full World
http://www.publicpolicy.umd.edu/faculty/daly/sciam-Daly5%20copy%201.pdf

Prosperity Without Growth
http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications/downloads/prosperity_without_growth_report.pdf

Why our Economy is Killing the Planet
http://www.scribd.com/doc/13482709/Ecological-Economics-Beyond-Growth-Why-Our-Economy-is-Killing-the-Planet-New-Scientist-18-Oct-2008

Mr Mah Bow Tan, Singapore's Minister for National Development, in today's Straits Times:

More than 700 policymakers, governors, urban planners and environmentalists from various countries are gathering at the Suntec Convention Centre, where the concept of 'sustainable development' will be in the limelight.

It is 'one of those terms that people use without knowing the meaning', noted Mr Mah, who defined it as such: 'It's how do we continue to grow in a way that doesn't adversely affect our living environment.'

With all due respect, I have to ask him, "Minister, do you know that the phrase 'sustainable development' is an oxymoron?" It is oxymoronic because the arithmetic of steady growth becomes exponentially large over a period of time, and due to physical constraints development or growth has to stop somewhere when the limits are reached. See video.

While Singapore has done 'fairly well over the last 40, 50 years', it faces new challenges in terms of resource constraints - energy, water, and land - as it tries to maintain growth, said Mr Mah.

To grow, he added: 'I submit that we need to continue to attract talent.

'More talent, more people means more strain on resources. More strain on resources means growth may be at the expense of the environment. So how do we reconcile that? It can be a vicious circle or we make it into a virtuous circle.'

I'm glad Mr Mah sees the toll a higher population exacts on the environment, but strangely he does not see the obvious solution. How do we reconcile that? He asks. Well, the simple answer is we can't. We can't reconcile environmental protection with ever-increasing human numbers and consumption. Logic dictates that conclusion as we live in a finite world with finite resources. The only (unpopular and politically incorrect) solution is to replace the doctrine of population and economic growth with a Steady State Economy.

How in the world does Mr Mah intend to make "more people" a "virtuous circle"? It's impossible. Is the minister familiar with Garrett Hardin's Three Laws of Human Ecology? I don't think so, and even if he is, he is not taking them seriously.

First Law of Human Ecology: "We can never do merely one thing." This is a profound and eloquent observation of the interconnectedness of nature.

Second Law of Human Ecology: "There's no away to throw to." This is a compact statement of one of the major problems of the effluent society.

Third Law of Human Ecology: The impact (I) of any group or nation on the environment is represented qualitatively by the relation

I = P A T

where P is the size of the population,A is the per capita affluence, measured by per capita rate of consumption, and T is a measure of the damage done by the technologies that are used in supplying the consumption. Hardin attributes this law to Ehrlich and Holdren (Ehrlich and Holdren, 1971).

http://dieoff.org/page39.htm

Said Mr Mah: 'Now we've got to look at energy. How do we save energy? How do we make better use of energy? How can we, can we recycle energy?'

Does the minister even understand what he himself is saying? You can't "recycle" energy because the Second Law of Thermodynamics dictates that. Energy once used is transformed from a state of low entropy to high entropy. Entropy measures the unavailability of a system’s energy to do work. When you burn gasoline, chemical energy is transformed into heat energy to power the car. How do you "recycle" the dispersed heat that has been used to do work? Is it possible to assemble the used energy for "recycling"? The answer is you can't. The entropy law dictates that this transformation process is one-way only and is therefore irreversible.

One cannot help but despair of the future when the minister who is responsible for a sustainable living environment makes such ludicrous statements.

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The Straits Times, June 23, 2008

http://www.straitstimes.com/Free/Story/STIStory_250709.html

Next target: Cut energy use

Minister Mah suggests reduction of 20%-30%; people will need to rethink how they use electricity By Li Xueying

SINGAPORE has to work harder at cutting down energy usage - perhaps by 20 per cent to 30 per cent, as countries around the world increasingly emphasise sustainable development.

National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan, who said this, noted that Singapore has scored relatively well on the water and land usage fronts.

'But I think (on) energy, we've not done enough. I think we need to do more,' he said in an interview with The Straits Times.

There would have to be a multifaceted approach taken, he noted.

On the Government's part, it can examine policies such as using new materials to construct HDB blocks, examining new ways of designing and maintaining lifts which currently 'use up a lot of energy', and installing energy-saving lights in public carparks.

Singaporeans, as consumers, also have to play their part in understanding the amount of energy that their various appliances use up, and going for energy-saving versions, he added.

'So I think we need to go into the details of each and every one of these items, and see how we can cut down energy usage 20 per cent, 30 per cent,' said Mr Mah.

His remarks come as the inaugural three-day World Cities Summit - co-organised by his ministry - kicks off today.

More than 700 policymakers, governors, urban planners and environmentalists from various countries are gathering at the Suntec Convention Centre, where the concept of 'sustainable development' will be in the limelight.

It is 'one of those terms that people use without knowing the meaning', noted Mr Mah, who defined it as such: 'It's how do we continue to grow in a way that doesn't adversely affect our living environment.'

Certainly, there are challenges as Singapore seeks to cut down on its energy usage, he conceded.

'Upfront costs may be a bit higher, but we have to (do it), if it makes practical sense. And (whether) the payback period is two, three, five, seven years, whatever, if this makes sense, then we have to do it,' he said.

'How many taxes, how many incentives are there, what are the things we need? I think these are things that we need to sit down and discuss.'

These are details that an inter-ministerial committee - co-chaired by Mr Mah and Minister for the Environment and Water Resources Yaacob Ibrahim - is thrashing out.

It will be rolling out a 10-year roadmap next year on how Singapore can adopt green solutions in transport, housing and industry.

While Singapore has done 'fairly well over the last 40, 50 years', it faces new challenges in terms of resource constraints - energy, water, and land - as it tries to maintain growth, said Mr Mah.

To grow, he added: 'I submit that we need to continue to attract talent.

'More talent, more people means more strain on resources. More strain on resources means growth may be at the expense of the environment. So how do we reconcile that? It can be a vicious circle or we make it into a virtuous circle.'

This comes in tandem with record energy prices.

In an assessment of Singapore's efforts to date, the minister said: '(With respect to) water we have done very well: How do we save water? How do we make sure that water is reused and recycled?

'On land, I think we've been very conscious about how we make use of land: Better utilisation of land; we've already done intensification, higher plot ratios and so on.'

So what is lacking are efforts on the energy front.

Said Mr Mah: 'Now we've got to look at energy. How do we save energy? How do we make better use of energy? How can we, can we recycle energy?'

xueying@sph.com.sg

In 2007, Minister for National Development, Mah Bow Tan, explained why Singapore needs 6.5 million people:

To grow and create more and better jobs, Singapore must remain open, competitive and relevant to the global market place. In such an economy, we need sufficient people with the right skills and experience. If we cannot get enough from our own people, we must supplement with skilled immigrants. A larger population and greater economic activity will bring about greater buzz, vibrancy and energy, which in turn will attract more people 
and new opportunities.

Obviously, we are still trapped in the growth mindset.

I think he should watch this lecture by professor Bartlett. Anyone who watches this video and continues to believe that population and economic growth can be sustained indefinitely is beyond me. Viewing of this video should be mandatory for all high-level policymakers.

Summary of the video: The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.


Part 1


Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5
Part 6
Part 7
Part 8